Autonomous vehicles are emerging, but what does this mean for the environment? (Part 1)

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are expected to have many advantages over conventional vehicles, including safety, financial, social and possibly environmental benefits.

It is increasingly recognized that drones can reduce gasoline consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, but they can also significantly increase the demand for travel. These offsetting effects need to be carefully considered and will affect the overall environmental impact of the widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles.

Approximately 27% of US greenhouse gas emissions come from the transportation sector, and 60% of those emissions come from passenger vehicles. AVS has the potential to have a range of potential environmental impacts, both negative and positive. Ultimately, it is this combination and size of these impacts that leads to a variety of environmental consequences.

Small-capacity unmanned aircraft can reduce oil consumption and associated emissions through increased efficiency, improved routing, reduced traffic congestion, and the use of electric drives.Alternatively, automating these vehicles could result in increased fuel consumption and emissions due to increased travel needs and speeds.

Impact of Automation

The impact of vehicle automation can generally be divided into three categories

1. changes in usage;

2. changes in energy intensity;

3. changes in fuel consumption.

Usage intensity refers to the number of transfers per vehicle (VMT) and represents the demand for vehicle travel.

Energy intensity refers to the energy required for each TDC and depends on both the design of the vehicle and the behavior of the driver.

Fuel capacity refers to the amount of liquid fuel per unit of energy.

With increased car travel among low-income populations (e.g., the elderly and low-income populations) and faster travel, self-driving cars are expected to increase fuel usage and demand. Alternatively, drones can reduce power consumption and fuel demand as they operate more efficiently and routes and weight are reduced for safety reasons.

Automation can greatly improve the economics of alternative kinetic systems. Electric drive systems have a higher initial cost and lower operating costs, making them more economical in severe operating scenarios. Unmanned aerial vehicles can be easily used as custom vehicles in a common fleet and provide easy access to electric drive. To meet the specific needs of users, electric vehicles can be supplied sequentially, which greatly increases the use of batteries and improves the economy of electric vehicles. This transition to electric drive systems is one of the most important factors in the improvement of the environmental situation through the introduction of AVS.

General impact.

The actual size of the impact caused by automated vehicles is currently unknown, but a 2014 study to analyze the potential energy impact of automated vehicles estimates an upper limit of possible changes in 2030 compared to the baseline of all conventional vehicles.

Worst-case scenario: In the worst-case scenario, combining all the possible consequences of an increase in fuel consumption, drones increase fuel demand by 173%.

Best case scenario: In the best case scenario, combining all possible fuel economy outcomes, drones reduce fuel demand by 95%.

Combined Scenario: Combining all effects, AVS leads to a 91% reduction in the number of passenger cars.

In this general summary scenario, drones encourage people to travel more miles, but in a more efficient way and with electricity as their primary fuel source.

Depending on the specific combination of outcomes, which will be explored in more detail in Part 2, drones can save significant amounts of fuel and cut greenhouse gas emissions from road transport by almost half. However, undesirable consequences are also possible. The potential for these undesirable effects must be minimized through policy and planning in order to achieve the highest possible environmental impact.